2008-05-02

Some Numbers

Even Strength (click for a clearer view):



- On the whole, these numbers look pretty damn fine for such a mediocre EV team in the regular season. A lot of that is because Boston and Philly are not exactly powerhouses.

- One of these days, everyone is going to realize that Kovalev just isn't a good EV player. It will never happen, but I wonder what he would fetch in a trade now that his stock is sky high.

- In a just and fair world, AKost would be eating into Kovy's EV minutes. I've got a post in the works looking at the career trajectories of him and Plekanec.

- The Streit/Lapierre/Dandenault line made a compelling case for dressing nine forwards in round one.

- SKost caught a lot of breaks in the reg. season. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, but he just keeps drawing aces.

Power Play:



- He's been slowing down the last couple of seasons. What happens if Koivu falls off a cliff next year?

- Streit was on fire on the PP down the stretch but has had a rough playoff.

- Kovy still producing at half his reg. season rate on the PP. Maybe if he laid off the 90 second EV shifts he's have a little more oomph on the PP.

- Let's plant Gui in front of the net.

~

Seems Gainey is courting Brunnstrom. Anytime a guy is hyped this much, the 'winner' is going to overpay. We already had a good long look at Niklas Sundstrom, Bob. Just say no.

A quick look at the SEL on hockeydb turns up Per Svartvadet as a fair comparison. Svartvadet put up 9-23-32 in 50gp at age 23. Brunstrom: 9-28-37 in 54gp. The SEL is chock full of 23 year old 3rd/4th/5th round picks with numbers similar to Brunnstrom's but with far less hype.

4 Comments:

Anonymous MathMan said...

I wouldn't worry about Brunnstrom. For one thing I trust in Trevor Timmins's judgement on this. Just as importantly, however, it is impossible to badly overpay him. He is limited by the CBA to an entry-level contract which means he will make a maximum of 850k plus bonuses for three years -- and him winning bonuses would mean that he was a good signing. That puts a strict upper limit on the money bidding.

The cap space used by the bonuses is worrisome, but Montreal isn't up against the cap and I don't foresee them being there next year unless they finally manage to get that elusive impact player (fingers crossed).

5/02/2008 7:05 PM  
Anonymous olibou said...

Well, you look at Price who probably got the most bonus allowed, and his cap hit is 2,2 mil... They currently have aruond 36mil tied up for next year.

Big names RFA are:

Akost, Lapierre, OByrne, Gorges and Halak

Apart from Streit, no real free agents of importance. But Akost is gonna cost a bundle.

As for Koivu falling off a cliff... He had his best year (points wise) last year and he turns 34 in November. Think we can expect him to, at worst, repeat what he did this year. And the his contract is up.

5/02/2008 8:14 PM  
Blogger Jeff J said...

This summer is supposed to be a poor year for UFAs. Maybe that's driving some of the Brunnstrom madness.

I'm hoping for a Mike Richards length contract for A.Kostitsyn, obviously with the dollar figures scaled down. He's got less of a track record but I think he's a better player. Of course, I'm planning a post looking at this and the rest of the Habs offseason after they're done playing in another month or so.

Here are Koivu's EV scoring rates over the last 10 years:

seasn age EVP/60
07-08 33 1.59
06-07 32 1.75
05-06 31 2.39
04-05 lockout
03-04 29 2.44
02-03 28 2.34
01-02 cancer
00-01 26 2.00
99-00 25 2.20
98-99 24 1.40
97-98 23 2.02
96-97 22 3.14

There's a definite downward trend in the last couple of years. Eye injury? Age? High mileage? He's definitely slowing down.

His counting numbers haven't dropped off quite as much. Veteran players seem to get better on the PP as they age.

5/03/2008 1:13 AM  
Anonymous Mark said...

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about tonights game. I hope Price is well rested!

5/03/2008 7:46 PM  

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