2008-04-30

Game 4

Looking for a review? I won't waste my time. Just go look at the last two games. It will have to suffice to say the Habs smoked them again everywhere but in the crease.

So they're down 3-1. Historically, the road team has gone on to win the series 70 times out of 80, or 87.5%. The upside for the Habs is their odds for a comeback have to be a little better than the historical rate because they've demonstrated in three straight games that they are the better team by a fair margin.

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Biron has allowed 10 goals on 142 shots for a sv% of .930. Price/Halak's sv% has been .854. At that rate they'd allow 19 goals on an equal number of shots. Even more, actually, because those save% numbers don't take into account the greater number of more difficult PP shots Biron has stopped.

Obviously, this is not sustainable. No NHL team has goaltending that is 75 points better than any other NHL team.

Montreal's goaltending is an organizational strength. They've just run into a helluva hot streak by Biron in this series. Combined with a poorly timed cold streak by Price, that means trouble. I should note, hot streaks/cold streaks in this context are the same as hot streaks/cold streaks with coin tosses or dice. Dumb luck.


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Anyone else remembering Begin's high sticking double minor in game #82 last year?

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If a mistake was made on the Mtl bench tonight, it was not playing the 46-14-74 line enough. Those guys dominated but saw way less icetime than 21-11-27.

6 Comments:

Anonymous MathMan said...

I don't even think it's goaltending. I think it's just puck luck.

Or call it a hot streak by Biron and a cold streak by the Habs' goaltending, but personally, I'm not even sure the goaltending is to blame. Puck's just not rolling Montreal's way.

It's immensely frustrating to watch a team play well enough to win 3 games running and not even pull out one measly W, even by sheer chance. I guess it's the "right way" to be losing a series, if there is such a thing, but it doesn't make it easier to swallow.

4/30/2008 11:59 PM  
Blogger Jeff J said...

I don't even think it's goaltending. I think it's just puck luck.

Yeah - I agree completely. The way I worded it makes it sound like I'm saying goaltending is the difference, but I was trying to point out how rotten the luck has been in goal.

If the Flyers have a real edge in goaltending, it's no bigger than .01 - one more save in 100.

5/01/2008 12:25 AM  
Anonymous olibou said...

That's the playoffs for you; guys have enough time to prepare against every peculiarities of a team. How many intercepted cross-ice passes trough the crease by the Flyers?

And that's the last 8 teams standing for you: every single team, at that point, is liable of winning a game (or three) where they are supposedly dominated.

The habs overcame the only grpie I had against them in that series, not enough shots from the crease. What now?

5/01/2008 9:38 AM  
Anonymous MathMan said...

There's not much that *can* be done. Montreal is doing just about everything right except getting the bounces. So stay the course, try to do even better, and hope the Flyers don't get lucky again over the next three games.

Or you can try to follow the pattern of the four games so far, and try to suck -- that seems to be the winning recipe in this series.

This is very unfortunate for the Habs who've pretty much been a much better team, but these things happen. Good experience for a team that was really supposed to be "for next year" in any case. Second round exit or not, this is already a season beyond the wildest dreams of the Habs' managers.

5/01/2008 11:50 AM  
Anonymous olibou said...

There seems to be a whole buche of charts one can extract from the timeonice.com website; I can only get the shift charts...

How do I get to the other cool charts?

5/01/2008 12:10 PM  
Blogger Jeff J said...

How do I get to the other cool charts?

Well, I haven't posted links to the shot charts because Vic Ferrari (the proprietor of timeonice) hasn't made them available on the front page. It may be a server bandwidth issue. He's only mentioned the links in posts on other blogs (notably his own: Irreverant Oil Fans. Go read it, it's great.) So I may be commiting a no-no here, but anyway:

The gameinfo url is
http://www.timeonice.com/gameinfo.php?gamenumber=30214

Shot charts
http://www.timeonice.com/shots.php?gamenumber=30214


Just replace the five digit game number with the one from nhl.com.


Also, I just noticed I added Brion's save totals wrong. He's allowed 10 goals on 142 shots for a .930 sv%. 75 points better than Mtl. Unreal.

5/01/2008 12:29 PM  

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