2006-02-14

Pre-season Predictions Revisited

Since there is nothing going on NHL-wise, let's evaluate preseason predictions.

I assembled these spreadsheets to analyze the predictions of five bloggers, three media sources, and one in-between. First, we have everyone's predicted ranking for each team:


Now, a look at the absolute difference between each ranking and the team's actual current ranking:

My apologies if the above are unreadable. I used a small font to get all 32 lines on one screen.

I used Jes Gőlbez's summary for seven of the nine sets of predictions: his own, The Puck Stops Here, HockeyAnalysis.com, James Mirtle, McKeen's, The Hockey News, and Sports Illustrated. I dug up Chris McMurtry's from his archives, and mine from my archives.

For the actual current standings, I used
Zorak's points-per-game. Now, onto the results...

Bloggers vs. Media: Bloggers, by a considerable margin. Of the media sources, only McKeen's did better than average. That isn't surprising. THN and SI are (mostly) well written, and thus their picks were probably made by writers. I get a much bigger "stats geek" vibe from McKeen's. Their writing is inferior; their hockey knowledge is superior.

Most Surprising In A Good Way: Carolina, Rangers, Buffalo. No surprise there. Mirtle came closest with the 'Canes and Sabres, picking them for 8th and 9th respectively. The highest the Rangers were pegged was 12th (by yours truly and THN). Dallas is the surprise of the Western Conference. I came closest with the Stars, placing them 6th.

Most Surprising In A Bad Way: San Jose and Boston. Again, no surprise at all. SI had the B's at 6th and THN had the Sharks at 4th.

Easiest picks: Ottawa and Washington in the East, Colorado and St. Louis in the West.

Best pick: Mirtle, putting the 'Canes in a playoff spot.

Worst pick: THN, placing the Preds at 13th.

Best Western Conference: Jes Gőlbez's

Best Eastern Conference: Mirtle

Best Overall Predictions: The Ranting One

Most Ignorant of the NHL: Sports Illustrated!

I'll have to remember to look at this again at the end of the regular season.

~~~

Here's where Canada should concentrate it's funding for athletes: buck-toothed female skiers. So far in Torino,

Jennifer Heil and Beckie Scott have combined for one gold and one silver medal.

I know, I know - I'm awful.

2 Comments:

Blogger The Puck Stops Here said...

Woohoo

Among the bloggers I am the worst ;-)

2/14/2006 2:34 PM  
Blogger Jeff J said...

It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. Of course, by the time the end of the regular season rolls around no one bothers to evaluate their preseason predictions.

2/15/2006 3:49 PM  

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