2008-05-23

Playoff Numbers

Discovered via Mirtle, the playoff stats are up at Behindthenet.

Only ten games are listed for the Habs. I'm not sure which two are missing.


Quality of Opposition



In such a small sample, the QUALCOMP measure can be misleading. The Bruins' 4th line blew away the Lapierre line. That means the QUALCOMP algorithm thinks Shawn Thornton, Vlad Sobotka and Jeremy Reich are Boston's best players and the Lapierre line had the tough assignments in round 1.

For that reason, this table is sorted by TOICOMP - the mean EV icetime of the players' opposition. You assume the best players get the most EV icetime (not necessarily true if the coach thinks the player's icetime is best spent on special teams - see Markov and Hamrlik).

At any rate, this order looks OK and contains no surprises. From top to bottom you can see the 1st through 4th lines and 1st through 3rd D pairs (Bouillon is a blip due to fewer GP).


Shots For/Against



Plekanec/AKost destroyed their opposition, outshooting them 2:1. Wow. The huge gap is partly due to them getting to play against 2nd calibre opposition when Koivu and Kovalev were together. This is the duo to watch next year.

At the other end of the scale, Streit/Lapierre were a horror show on the 4th line. Why did they continue to get icetime? It would have been soo easy to beef up the bottom three forwards at the trade deadline.

It's becoming evident that Koivu's role should be reduced. Bringing in a real top-notch centre who could bump everyone down a line would be the best move Gainey could make for next year.


Production



Sergei continued to be a rabbit's foot in the postseason. This is beginning to look like a pattern. Maybe there is more to this kid than meets the eye.

Plekanec and Andrei continue to prove that they score in spite of Kovalev, not because of Kovalev. It's a travesty that Kovalev gets the most EV minutes among forwards.

Streit/Lapierre's production doesn't make up for their goals against.

What's up with Komi outscoring Markov 3-0 at EV?


Goal Differential



Though this is less telling than the shots for/against, it's still worth noting who outscored/got outscored.

Although Pleks/AKost outshot opponents 2:1, they were even in GF/GA. Goaltending was a factor.

5 Comments:

Anonymous MahMan said...

On Pleky and Kosty scoring "despite" Kovalev: perhaps it's fairer to say that the two showed they don't need Kovy to score. I do think Plekanec and Kostitsyn were highly impressive at even strength. But I don't think Kovy is a boat anchor on that line, and he may be getting more minutes due to higher stamina. Then there's the fact that any minutes he spends on the ice away from Pleky and Kosty are automatically with lesser offensive contributors -- that's gotta eat into his points/60 total. That, plus the intimidation factor of Kovalev, justified or not, means that he drew tight checking and top D-men.

On Pleky and Andrei, Part II: Definitely the pair to watch next year. If a new center is added, I wonder how well they might do with Sergei all year. Then again, I also wonder what they might do with a Marian Hossa as their RW. Or Kovalev could stay there; that didn't work too badly this year...

On Sergei being a rabbit's foot: he's a great passer and a tenacious battler. Maybe he's just a driver of high shot % -- good passers naturally would be. We'll see next year. But then again, being lucky is not a bad thing. Clearly it's a skill the Habs have been sorely lacking in. ;)

On Koivu: the shot-based metrics may look a little bad, but the production certainly was there. But yes, the Habs' could certainly use a guy like Mats Sundin.

On Streit: it seems clear to me that part of the problem occured when he was used as a bottom-pairing D-man, which is why he is so far behind Lapierre in Corsi (and Lapierre is not good at all). The Habs' fourth line was dysfunctional, but it's an open question whether the line could have been buffed up by adding people; I think what it really needs is a better distribution of personnel, as the styles of Lapierre, Latendresse, Dandenault, and Streit-the-forward don't mesh much. (Well, I suppose Lapierre and Dandenault mesh extremely well, but their style of dumping the puck then hitting the D-man that long passed the puck away is not particularly effective.)

Streit needed to be in the lineup for the power play, anyhow -- although it admittedly looked terrible for much of the playoffs, he was a key component during the regular season and it tends to look aimless behind him.

5/23/2008 1:44 PM  
Blogger James Mirtle said...

Gabe's added the missing games.

Good analysis, Jeff.

5/23/2008 3:30 PM  
Blogger Jeff J said...

Dang, now I have to re-do all my tables!

Sundin's who I have in mind too, but hesitate to mention the name because it's a little far-fetched. He's not leaving Toronto.

5/23/2008 7:45 PM  
Blogger eyebleaf said...

nice post, man.

and i hope you're right about sundin. if he leaves toronto, i'm going to declare jihad on his ass.

5/24/2008 2:40 PM  
Anonymous mmafight said...

saku is an awesome player. people to dismiss him because he's not canadian do not know hockey. http://mmafight.ca this guy has a lot, and i mean a LOT of heart.

5/30/2008 1:33 AM  

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