Latendresse II

There is a post by MC79 from back in December, and it is an interesting one. It looks at recent players' 20/21yo seasons and where they stand in a percentile ranking of their EV points. Go read it then come back. I'll wait.

So Guillaume Latendresse just completed his 20yo season, posting 1.07 ESG/60 and 1.75 ESP/60 in 788 ES minutes. Judging from seasons by other players in the post (which, it must be noted, is restricted to players who landed between 20th and 60th percentiles), his goal rank would be at least 80th percentile and his points would be close to 60th (these are guesses because MC79's post on percentile rankings doesn't include 07-08).

Lats would be near the top of the 20yo list in the post, alongside Devereaux, Fisher, Morrow, Perry and Antropov. He's well above a lot of impressive names, like Hartnell, Erat, Roy, Sedins and M. Richards.

It will be interesting to see if Latendresse finishes next season over the magical 60th percentile marker as a 21yo. Looking at his season in this light makes me want to reconsider the Pyatt Plus label I stuck on him below. Maybe we should upgrade him to Antropov-ish.

Addendum: In Andrei Kostitsyn's 21yo season (06-07) he posted about 2.3 ESP/60, albeit in limited icetime. He would have close to 85th percentile. AKost looks like a player.


Anonymous MathMan said...

Well, looks like Lats did it.

1.08 ESG/60, 1.80 ESP/60

He got hurt, got saddled with defensive forwards, on a weak ES team, and still managed to pull it off. He's probably around 60 percentile ESP and around 80 or even 90 percentile ESG. Incidentally, that's 2nd among Habs for goals, 4th for points, and everyone ahead of him is no longer a Hab.

He's a NHL scorer. And his goals-versus-assists ratio really suggests he could do even better if he was paired with people who are better at finishing than Tom Kostopoulos.

He finished +5 with moderate difficulty competition (-0.01) and managed to get the highest behindthenet "rating" on the team (for what that's worth). He even was 5th in terms of Corsi rating.

And people call him a bust. Terribly underrated is what I see.

Here's hoping Martin sees this and gives him a real scoring role, rather than do what Carbo did and bury him on the third line because he play a smarter, less reckless game than Milan Lucic.

7/04/2009 4:21 p.m.  

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