Luongo's not that dumb

So. The self-proclaimed hockey guru of my office (every office has one) swings by the water cooler, saying:

"Luongo must be kicking himself now, huh? Huh? Turns down a 5-year, $25M offer and the arbitrator gives him one year at $3.2M! Boy, he really must be kicking himself."

I didn't argue. It's pointless to argue with the office guru. Every time I do, the discussion is eventually reduced to which one of us has seen Bobby Hull play. So I'll post my argument here.

Luongo will be a free agent in two years. He will also be the best goalie in hockey in two years, if he isn't already. If Khabibulin is worth $6.75M (which he isn't but that's neither here nor there), Luongo will be worth more. So Roberto makes $3.2M this year, maybe $3.5 next year, then at least $7M for the next three years when he's an UFA. That adds up to $27.7M over five years, and includes the bonus of being able to walk away from the team that took him to arbitration.

Of course, there is speculation involved. No one really knows what the market or cap will be like in a few years. Nonetheless, I'm pretty sure Luongo will earn more than $25M over the next 5 years. If he doesn't, I'll just delete this blog to erase any evidence of my error then change the subject to Bobby Hull.