So they're down 3-1. Historically, the road team has gone on to win the series 70 times out of 80, or 87.5%. The upside for the Habs is their odds for a comeback have to be a little better than the historical rate because they've demonstrated in three straight games that they are the better team by a fair margin.
Biron has allowed 10 goals on 142 shots for a sv% of .930. Price/Halak's sv% has been .854. At that rate they'd allow 19 goals on an equal number of shots. Even more, actually, because those save% numbers don't take into account the greater number of more difficult PP shots Biron has stopped.
Obviously, this is not sustainable. No NHL team has goaltending that is 75 points better than any other NHL team.
Montreal's goaltending is an organizational strength. They've just run into a helluva hot streak by Biron in this series. Combined with a poorly timed cold streak by Price, that means trouble. I should note, hot streaks/cold streaks in this context are the same as hot streaks/cold streaks with coin tosses or dice. Dumb luck.
Anyone else remembering Begin's high sticking double minor in game #82 last year?
If a mistake was made on the Mtl bench tonight, it was not playing the 46-14-74 line enough. Those guys dominated but saw way less icetime than 21-11-27.